Methanol
Overview
The global methanol industry has suffered in recent years. First COVID-19, then the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by global inflation, stagnation and downward revised GDP forecasts. It is hoped 2022/2023 will be the performance valley for the sector, looking toward an improved—but still slowed—outlook. The huge China methanol appetite has slowed. The MTO sector sees minimal growth ahead. The rest of the world will have to generate increased demand, but with much of this sector tied to GDP performance, the outlook here too is reserved. New capacity continues to define the landscape, with several new units expected in the coming months.
Pricing is spiking in Q4’23 due to a myriad of methanol production outages around the world. Production will return and prices weaken some. However, the outlook is for the olefins and olefin derivative sectors to finally end their respective down cycles. Olefin/derivative prices are expected to improve, driving higher MTO methanol affordability values. The rest of the methanol industry is expected to follow China’s MTO methanol price strength.
Argus’ experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global markets.
Latest methanol news
Keyera acquiring Plains' Canada NGL assets for $3.75bn
Keyera acquiring Plains' Canada NGL assets for $3.75bn
Houston, 17 June (Argus) — Midstream operator Keyera will acquire Plains All American's Canadian natural gas liquids (NGLs) business for C$5.15bn ($3.75bn). The transaction, which is expected to close by the first quarter of 2026, includes 193,000 b/d of fractionation capacity in western Canada, more than 1,500 miles of pipelines gathering 575,000 b/d of NGLs, 23mn bl in NGL storage capacity, and the 5.7 Bcf/d Empress straddle gas processing plant. The acquisition is expected to deliver C$100mn of annual synergies between the assets in the first year, according to Keyera. Plains said the divestiture will allow the US-based midstream operator to focus on its crude handling assets in both the US and Canada. Plains will keep nearly all of its NGL assets in the US. The acquisition of Plains' assets gives Keyera NGL fractionators and gas processing plants in Fort Saskatchewan, and at the Empress facility in western Canada as well as storage at Sarnia, Ontario. It also links Keyera's existing assets to takeaway agreements for LPG exports out of British Columbia. Keyera chief executive Dean Setoguchi said the acquisition "... brings key infrastructure under Canadian ownership, keeping value and decision-making closer to home." Plain's Canadian business is underpinned by fee-based contracts with an average remaining life of 10 years, Keyera said. Associated NGL production in Canada is expected to grow by 500,000 b/d by 2040, according to Keyera, as natural gas production in western Canada climbs by 6 Bcf/d during the same timeframe. By Amy Strahan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US biofuel feed prices jump on blending plan
US biofuel feed prices jump on blending plan
Houston, 16 June (Argus) — Prices for US biofuel feedstocks have risen sharply since the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) late last week proposed ambitious biofuel blending targets for the next two years along with lower incentives for using foreign feedstocks. Futures prices for soybean oil, the most widely used input for biodiesel production, have led the feedstock gains as the market prices in potentially higher demand. The Nymex front-month contract for soybean oil rose by 6.3pc on 13 June and by an additional 7.8pc on Monday to 54.6¢/lb, the highest since October 2023. The proposed targets , released on 13 June, would mandate that an equivalent amount of 5.61bn USG of biomass-based diesel be blended in 2026 and 5.86bn USG in 2027. The proposed volumes exceeded most market expectations and industry requests of 5.25bn USG and were significantly higher than the current-year mandate of 3.35bn USG, fueling expectations for increased biofuel feedstocks demand. In addition, domestic feedstocks may face reduced competition from foreign feedstocks under the proposal, which would cut federal Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credit generation by 50pc for imported biofuels or fuels produced from foreign feedstocks. Biomass-based diesel D4 RINs for the current year rallied Monday morning, trading between 127-132¢/RIN, up significantly from Friday's close of 109¢/RIN. Used cooking oil (UCO) railcar volumes to the US Gulf coast were reported trading at 59¢/lb early Monday morning, a 3.5pc jump from Friday's closing price of 57¢/lb, with additional selling interest emerging in the 60s¢/lb. UCO offers for volumes into California were noted in the high 60s¢/lb, up from last week's close in the high 50s¢/lb. Distillers corn oil (DCO) fob truck volumes in the Midwest traded at 61¢/lb on Monday morning, reflecting a 9pc jump from Friday's close of 56¢/lb. Poultry fat fob truck volumes in the southeast were offered in the low 50s¢/lb, up from last week's closing levels in the low 40s¢/lb, but buying interest has not emerged at those levels. Activity for other renewable feedstocks remains limited for now, but market participants anticipate increased trading later this week, driven by the recent proposal and gains in futures markets. The EPA proposal is currently in an open comment period, with a public hearing scheduled for 8 July. By Payne Williams and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates: Update
EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates: Update
Updates with new pricing, reactions throughout. New York, 13 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration today proposed requiring record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal, which still must be finalized, projects oil refiners will need to blend 5.61bn USG of biomass-based diesel to comply with requirements in 2026 and 5.86bn USG in 2027. Those estimates — while uncertain — would be a 67pc increase in 2026 and a 75pc increase in 2027 from this year's 3.35bn USG requirement, above what most industry groups had sought. The proposal alone is likely to boost biofuel production, which has been down to start the year as biorefineries have struggled to grapple with uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and higher import tariffs. The National Oilseed Processors Association said hiking the biomass-based diesel mandate to the proposed levels would bring "idled capacity back online" and spur "additional investments" in the biofuel supply chain. The EPA proposal also would halve Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits generated from foreign biofuels and biofuels produced from foreign feedstocks, a major change that could increase US crop demand and hurt renewable diesel plants that source many of their inputs from abroad. US farm groups have lamented refiners' rising use of Chinese used cooking oil and Brazilian tallow to make renewable diesel, and EPA's proposal if finalized would sharply reduce the incentive to do so. Biofuel imports from producers with major refineries abroad, notably including Neste, would also be far less attractive. The proposal asks for comment, however, on a less restrictive policy that would only treat fuels and feedstocks from "a subset of countries" differently. And EPA still expects a substantial role for imported product regardless, estimating in a regulatory impact analysis that domestic fuels from domestic feedstocks will make up about 62pc of biomass-based diesel supply next year. The Renewable Fuel Standard program requires US oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. One USG of corn ethanol generates one RIN, but more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel can earn more. In total, the rule would require 24.02bn RINs to be retired next year and 24.46bn RINs in 2027. That includes a specific 7.12bn RIN mandate for biomass-based diesel in 2026 and 7.5bn in 2027, and an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat from prior years at 15bn RINs. EPA currently sets biomass-based diesel mandates in physical gallons but is proposing a change to align with how targets for other program categories work. US soybean oil futures surged following the release of the EPA proposal, closing at their highest price in more than four weeks, and RIN credits rallied similarly on bullish expectations for higher biofuel demand and domestic feedstock prices. D4 biomass-diesel credits traded as high as 117.75¢/RIN, up from a 102.5¢/RIN settle on Thursday, while D6 conventional credits traded as high as 110¢/RIN. Bids for both retreated later in the session while prices still closed the day higher. Proposed targets are less aspirational for the cellulosic biofuel category, where biogas generates most credits. EPA proposes lowering the 2025 mandate to 1.19bn RINs, down from from 1.38bn RINs previously required, with 2026 and 2027 targets proposed at 1.30bn RINs and 1.36bn RINs, respectively. In a separate final rule today, EPA cut the 2024 cellulosic mandate to 1.01bn RINs from 1.09bn previously required, a smaller cut than initially proposed, and made available special "waiver" credits refiners can purchase at a fixed price to comply. Small refinery exemptions The proposal includes little clarity on EPA's future policy around program exemptions, which small refiners can request if they claim blend mandates will cause them disproportionate economic hardship. EPA predicted Friday that exemptions for the 2026 and 2027 compliance years could total anywhere from zero to 18bn USG of gasoline and diesel and provided no clues as to how it will weigh whether individual refiners, if any, deserve program waivers. The rule does suggest EPA plans to continue a policy from past administrations of estimating future exempted volumes when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners must blend in the future, which would effectively require those with obligations to shoulder more of the burden to meet high-level 2026 and 2027 targets. Notably though, the proposal says little about how EPA is weighing a backlog of more than a hundred requests for exemptions stretching from 2016 to 2025. An industry official briefed on Friday ahead of the rule's release said Trump administration officials were "coy" about their plans for the backlog. Many of these refiners had already submitted RINs to comply with old mandates and could push for some type of compensation if granted retroactive waivers, making this part of the program especially hard to implement. And EPA would invite even more legal scrutiny if it agreed to biofuel groups' lobbying to "reallocate" newly exempted volumes from many years prior into future standards. EPA said it plans to "communicate our policy regarding [exemption] petitions going forward before finalization of this rule". Industry groups expect the agency will try to conclude the rule-making before November. The proposed mandates for 2026-2027 will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed as regulators weigh new data on biofuel production and food and fuel prices. Once the program updates are finalized, lawsuits are inevitable. A federal court is still weighing the legality of past mandates, and the Supreme Court is set to rule this month on the proper court venue for litigating small refinery exemption disputes. Environmentalists are likely to probe the agency's ultimate assessment of costs and benefits, including the climate costs of encouraging crop-based fuels. Oil companies could also have a range of complaints, from the record-high mandates to the creative limits on foreign feedstocks. American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers senior vice president Geoff Moody noted that EPA was months behind a statutory deadline for setting 2026 mandates and said it would "strongly oppose any reallocation of small refinery exemptions" if finalized. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Proposed 2026-2027 renewable volume obligations bn RINs Fuel type 2026 2027 Cellulosic biofuel 1.30 1.36 Biomass-based diesel 7.12 7.50 Advanced biofuel 9.02 9.46 Total renewable fuel 24.02 24.46 Implied ethanol mandate 15 15 — EPA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Borealis not reviewing assets in Europe: CEO
Borealis not reviewing assets in Europe: CEO
London, 12 June (Argus) — Austria-based petrochemicals producer Borealis is not conducting any asset reviews in Europe despite prolonged weakness in the region's polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets, chief executive Stefan Doboczky told Argus . "It's not that we would never look into something," Doboczky said. But "none of our major installations [in Europe] I would say are being a real problem, they are all contributing [to profitability]." Doboczky acknowledged that "Europe will never be the cost leader". But "there are strong differences between the economics of crackers and the polyolefin systems", he said. "If you look at our more coastal setups, we are much more flexible than certain steam crackers would be inland." Borealis' coastal steam crackers in Porvoo, Finland, and in Stenungsund, Sweden, have greater flexibility to run lighter feedstocks and optimise product yields. Their location also allows for easier feedstock procurement via vessel, Doboczky said. Borealis will continue to bring polyolefins into Europe from its sister plants in the Middle East and North America, which have advantageous positions on feedstock and production costs. Doboczky's comments follow Netherlands-based LyondellBasell's announcement last week that it plans to divest four European olefins and polyolefins plants to focus on "economically sustainable sites". The European petrochemicals sector has faced mounting pressure from weak demand and high costs, prompting several producers to review or close assets. Saudi Arabia's Sabic is also understood to be assessing its European footprint, although details remain limited. Borealis, by contrast, is pursuing a differentiation strategy focused on downstream expansion. Last week, it announced a €100mn ($114mn) investment to triple PP foam production capacity at its Burghausen site in Germany. The firm has 650,000 t/yr of PP production capacity at that site. "We are very much focused on investing in smaller units, in the €50mn-100mn space to gain a strong share in a particular niche," Doboczky said. This is in addition to around €2bn of overall capital expenditure already committed in Europe for new projects. "Borealis has no alternative to this [polyolefins] business," Doboczky said, adding that the company will continue to focus on specialty, high-end applications rather than volume-driven segments. It also has a notable presence in the downstream compounding sector, which uses part of its PE and PP resin output. Demand outlook Borealis expects 2025 demand to be broadly in line with 2023-24 levels, although it could vary by grade and segment. "We see too much volatility at the moment and I think we need to see how the world looks like after 9 July," Doboczky said, referring to the 90-day tariff pause on US imports. "The general sentiment that PP is even more difficult, I would subscribe to that." PP demand has been hit harder than PE, given its exposure to big-ticket consumer goods and the automotive segment, both of which have been affected by cost-of-living pressures. Construction demand is also under pressure due to economic headwinds and high financing costs. For the time being, Borealis continues to see offtake from the automotive segment within its expected range, owing to a larger share of electric vehicle production, which uses a higher proportion of PP to offset battery weight. The company is also targeting growth in rigid and flexible packaging through increased innovation. Project updates Earlier this year, OMV and Adnoc agreed to merge Borealis and Borouge into a new entity, Borouge Group International, which will be headquartered in Vienna and listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange. The move coincided with the acquisition of Canada-based Nova Chemicals by the new entity. Borealis is constructing a 750,000 t/yr propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant in Kallo, Belgium, which is scheduled to come online in the second quarter of 2026. The Borouge 4 project in Abu Dhabi is on track to start up ethylene and PE production in late 2025 or early 2026, Doboczky said. By Sam Hashmi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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